Boulder County Colorado – a bright spot in a gloomy forecast
December 9th, 2008 Categories: Colorado Round Up, Focus on Boulder, Market Conditions, Relocating
The Boulder Daily Camera highlighted today the economic forecast for the state, stating that “next year 1000’s of people might loose thir jobs, retail sales will be sluggish and the state’s housing market will continue to slide”. This was released Monday from the University of Colorado recapping the 44th Annual Colorado Economic Forecast released Monday. By comparison, even though Colorado’s forecast might be a bit rosier than the US as a whole, what was amazing was that Boulder County’s forecast is faring quite well. Although not immune, Boulder County as been outperforming the state and national economy in many areas due to the “strength and diversity” of the economy which will most likely hasten the recovery.
Because of the unique mix of employers in the Boulder County and a high concentrations of well paying jobs in industries such as aerospace, biotechnology, renewable energy and natural and organic products industries, Boulder will sustain at a higher level. The CU Economic Forecast expects the natural resources, education, health services and government sectors to weather the recession the best. The report also expects the private businesses and professional and business services to see some gains, however, the retail , information sector, finance, insurance and real estate are expected to cut jobs.
Here are a few of the highlights of the economic indicators for Boulder Colorado:
- 4.6 percent – August unemployment rate, compared with 5.2 percent for Colorado and 6.1 percent for the US
- 16 percent – Decrease in the number of building permits from the first quarter of 2007 to the first quarter of 2008
- 2.5 percent – Appreciation of homes from mid-year 2007 to mid-year 2008, compared with 1.8 percent for the state and a fall of 1.7 percent nationwide
- $243 million – Increase in deposits held in county banks from mid-year 2007 to mid-year 2008
- $346 million – Venture capital investment in local companies between mid- year 2007 and mid-year 2008
For Colorado in general, the government will add about 4,400 jobs, mostly in education, however, the economic forecast expects Colorado state to loose 4,000 jobs bringing the unemployment rate to 6.5% – compared to the 2009 national US unemployment forecast that is expected to grow to 7.5%.
So, can’t stand all the good news here? Stick with sage advice of “DO NOT PANIC“, and don’t “DON’T DO ANYTHING STUPID“. Continue doing what you normally do. They say “the economy is driven much more by people’s attitudes and their perspectives”. And if you’ve got a good job, hold onto it if you can.
You mention that the unique mix of employers and high concentration of well paying jobs Boulder will sustain at higher level. I read the original BLS.Gov report as well that reported better numbers for Boulder.
I recently conducted a poll of LinkedIn professionals (those within 20 mile radius of Boulder and are registered LinkedIn members). I found a higher percentage of these professionals, nearly 25% (margin of error 9%) reporting as unemployed and 30% reported being laid off in the past six months.
I admit that the poll may have methodology errors in terms of self selection and over representation but so does the labor department way of finding unemployment figures. I believe the number is not as low as 4.8% for professionals but some where near 15%.
the poll results can be seen at
http://bouldernet.blogspot.com/2009/01/boulder-metro-employment-status-poll.html
Please explain how, “…The Boulder Daily Camera highlighted today the economic forecast for the state, stating that “next year 1000’s of people might loose thir jobs, retail sales will be sluggish and the state’s housing market will continue to slide”…is good news. (I left the typo from the original in there, to highlight the consistent quality of the Camera’s reporting. Folks, how can you not spell check a word (thir)that does not exist?)
Anyway, if you see this as “good news,” then you still are drinking the “it seems OK today” Kool-Aid. The responsibility needed is to accept what is clearly on the horizon (EX: ARMS mortgages guaranteed to fail) and deal with it. Not, “Americans completely under water and unable to pay mortgages” followed by, “Home prices seem normal NOW.”
I mean, if your prediction is that, “…the retail , information sector, finance, insurance and real estate are expected to cut jobs…” wouldn’t the average high school student surmise that there might be a ripple effect? Say, for example…less spending? Hmmm, less spending? Could that ripple into other businesses?
This mini rant is aimed at the people who need to fill “X” amount of square inches of paper to sell one. The Camera is really reaching here to make a feel good story in a space that requires candor and treating its readers like adults. Not children who need to be shielded from the facts.
(Of course, we are talking about a paper that listed 14th Street Restaurant’s address as “unknown” in a restaurant review piece. Priceless!)
I love Boulder, and believe it will fare better than most. Much of that is an extension of the self fulfilling prophecy that “yes we can…” and yes we will.