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Case-Shiller: Home Price Growth Continues

November home prices grew by 5.60 percent year-over-year on a seasonally adjusted basis according to Case-Shiller’s reading on National Home Prices. National average home prices rose 0.80 percent from October to November. Case-Shiller’s 20-City home price index revealed that the West and Mountain regions continue to hold the top three growth rates for home prices. Seattle posted a seasonally adjusted growth rate of 10.40 percent which was closely followed by Portland, Oregon’s year-over year average home price gain of 10.10 percent. Denver rounded out the top three home price growth rates included in the 20-CityiIndex with a year-over-year gain of 8.70 percent.

Top readings for month-to-month home price gains for the 20-City home price index were 0.20 percent for Seattle, Washington and Portland, Oregon. Denver, Colorado posted a month-to-month gain of 0.60 percent. Analysts said that home prices may be topping out in some cities; San Francisco, California was one of two cities posting lower home prices in November than for October. San Francisco home prices enjoyed rapid and stratospheric gains in recent years, but may have reached a threshold as fewer buyers can afford to purchase such high-priced homes.

Home Prices Approach PreRecession Levels

September’s national home price gains matched the pre-recession peak achieved in mid- 2006. While this is positive news, the 20-city index currently averages 7 percent below its prior peak level. It’s important to note that the 20-city index does not include Philadelphia, Pennsylvania and Houston, Texas metro areas, which have enjoyed significant growth in home prices. Home prices for cities included in the 20-city index remain about 7 percent lower than their previous peak, but are 40 percent higher than their lowest point in 2012.

David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the S&P Dow Jones Indices committee, said that November’s readings on home prices appear to indicate that home price gains have escaped the boom-or-bust cycles seen in the last dozen years or so.

Rising Mortgage Rates, Home Prices Present Obstacles for Buyers

While homeowners listing their homes for sale continue to enjoy appreciation home values, would-be home buyers are being sidelined by the effects of accelerating home price growth and higher mortgage rates, which are expected to continue increasing. As with San Francisco, more cities included in the Case-Shiller home price indices may see slowdowns in home price growth and home sales as affordable homes and home loans slip out of reach. 

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S&P Case-Shiller: Home Price Growth Slows in July

Home prices dipped slightly in July according to the S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index. Year-over-year, home price growth dipped to 5.00 percent from June’s reading of 5.10 percent. The Pacific Northwest led the nation in home price appreciation. Portland, Oregon had the highest year-over-year home price growth with a rate of 12.40 percent. Seattle, Washington posted year-over-year home price growth of 11.20 percent. Denver, Colorado was third with a year-over-year home price growth rate of 9.40 percent.

Home prices in San Francisco, California slowed; year-over-year, home prices grew by 6.00 percent in contrast to home price growth topping the 20-city index in recent months. Analysts observed that cooling home prices in San Francisco could represent the end of the area’s housing bubble.

Year-over-year home price growth was lowest in New York, New York with a reading of 1.70 percent. Washington, D.C. posted a year-over-year reading of 2.00 percent; Cleveland, Ohio posted a year-over-year home price growth rate of 2.50 percent.

MonthtoMonth Home Price Growth Provides Surprises

The largest month-to-month gains in home prices were posted by Portland, Oregon at 1.20 percent, Denver, Colorado with a reading of 0.90 percent and Detroit, Michigan with a July reading of 0.80 percent. While year-over-year home price growth readings are less volatile than month-to-month readings, signs of increasing home values in cities with depressed home price growth rates are a positive sign.

On the other hand, San Francisco, California posted a flat reading for month-to-month growth after recently topping year-over-year readings in the 20-City Home Price Index. With skyrocketing prices and limited inventories of available homes, it appears that San Francisco home prices may have reached their upward limit.

David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chair of the S&P Index Committee, said that July’s readings indicate further improvement of the economy and housing markets. This progress could prove difficult to sustain as house prices continue to outpace wages and rising home prices continue to sideline first-time buyers. Slim supplies of homes for sale are creating higher-than-average demand for homes that fuels rapidly rising home prices. This further complicates home purchase options for home buyers who compete with investors and others who are able to meet or exceed asking prices and purchase homes with cash.

Home buyers requiring mortgages have been supported by relatively low mortgage rates, but strict mortgage credit standards continue to provide obstacles for credit-challenged buyers. Financial institutions continue to take a conservative stance on mortgage lending after sustaining severe losses and government ridicule in the wake of the Great Recession.

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